{"id":3908,"date":"2022-02-24T08:58:49","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T07:58:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.forwardkeys.com\/what-if-china-outbound-reopens-this-year\/"},"modified":"2024-12-04T12:36:15","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T11:36:15","slug":"what-if-china-outbound-reopens-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/what-if-china-outbound-reopens-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"What if China outbound reopens this year?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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As the world slowly awakens from the slumber induced by Covid-19, first in the Caribbean, then the Americas and now across Europe, all eyes are on China and its plans to resume the outbound travel. China was previously the world\u2019s largest outbound tourism market.<\/p>\n

The total number of outbound trips grew steadily from 57.4 million in 2010 to 169 million in 2019. China was also one of the largest contributors to the global tourism industry by expenditure. In 2019, Chinese tourists spent about 255 billion U.S. dollars while travelling abroad.<\/p>\n

According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China\u2019s five-year plan, which was published in January 2022, international flights will gradually resume between 2023 and 2025. But, with rumours circulating that China could start a slow reopening as early as this summer, we couldn't help to wonder \u201cwhat if China re-opens, what will Chinese tourists look like in the post-pandemic?\u201d<\/p>\n

Will the same international destinations entice Chinese travellers as before?<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n

In 2019, mature long-haul destinations captured a great share of Chinese outbound travel outside Asia. According to ForwardKeys<\/a><\/strong> data, those destinations included and was led by Europe (51% share of all trips outside Asia), the US (17%) and Australia (9%).<\/p>\n

Popular destination cities in Europe, Australia and the USA included Paris, Los Angeles, Moscow, London, Sydney, Rome, New York, Frankfurt, Melbourne, and San Francisco, with London (+9%) and Moscow (+5%) showing the largest increases.<\/p>\n

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Digging deeper into the ForwardKeys data<\/a>,<\/strong> the typical traveller profile to Paris, Moscow, Frankfurt, and Rome (European destinations) was groups whereas to London and the US destinations it was a different traveller \u2013 solo\/business, while more family-sized groups travelled to Australia (than to any European or US destinations).<\/p>\n

Pre-pandemic, trips to other Asian destinations accounted for most of the outbound trips. Thailand, Japan, and South Korea were the top destinations of choice for Chinese travellers.<\/p>\n

Within that trio, Japan did very well in improving its market share, from 10% in 2014 to 23% in 2019. Thailand continued to be the top destination with a 24% market share in 2019. South Korea\u2019s had a 9% market share in 2019.<\/p>\n

With all three mentioned destinations looking to reopen for business this year, could we see a reshuffle take place if Chinese travellers are allowed to travel internationally again?<\/p>\n

According to Dragon Trail International\u2019s<\/a> most recent Chinese consumer sentiment survey, \u201cdespite very cautious assessments of safety outside of mainland China, 81% of survey respondents felt positive when they saw content on outbound travel. Keywords and sentiments that came up often included feeling fascinated and excited, and a craving for novelty, variety, and relaxation.\u201d<\/p>\n

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From changing interests and habits to new traveller profiles \u2013\u00a0 A Domestic China Case Study<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n

Thanks to released travel restrictions, Chinese tourists have been the first to return to Macau<\/a>. In 2021, travellers to Macau recovered around 54% of the pre-pandemic level, while outbound travel from mainland China to Hong Kong was down 96%, and in general, was down 98%.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt seems that although travellers are exempt from quarantine both when arriving in Macau and when travelling back home, the kind of \u2018test-fly-test\u2019 model still brings inconvenience and hampers travel willingness. Alternatively, people tend to explore more in domestic markets during the pandemic,\u201d says Nan Dai.<\/p>\n

\u201cBefore the pandemic, Macau was usually a combined holiday destination, matched up with a few days in Hong Kong. But now, due to safety concerns and travel restrictions, people tend to explore just a single destination, at a slower pace,\u201d she adds.<\/p>\n

Gross revenue from gaming generated MOP86.86 billion in 2021, a 44% increase from last year but still distant from the MOP292.46 billion reported in 2019, pre-pandemic.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s not only the gaming aspect that draws travellers away from home. Look at Hainan, where surfing<\/a> and shopping have grown in popularity. Travellers to Hainan recovered 96% in 2021 versus 2019.<\/p>\n

Throughout the pandemic, shopping tourism has been given a helping hand due to the tax exemptions made for the region. The annual offshore duty-free allowance for shoppers visiting Hainan Island has been raised from 30 thousand RMB to 100 thousand from July 2020, and the previous 8,000 RMB limit for a single tax-free purchase is removed.<\/p>\n

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The top origin cities where people were most enjoying these benefits in Hainan were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu in 2021. Music to the ears of many luxury brands and travel retailers as this just compounds the need for revenge shopping, ready to take place potentially overseas once the departure gates are re-opened for international travel.<\/p>\n

\u201cSports tourism is another trend to consider. Greatly encouraged by publicity surrounding the Winter Olympics in Beijing this year, we see the strongly growing enthusiasm for travel to snowy ski destinations in the Northeastern part of China. When outbound travel resumes, I think there could be more customized trips to famous winter destinations worldwide,\u201d says Dai.<\/p>\n

China Market Expert, Nancy Dai, reveals that the type of Chinese travellers will be quite different from the group of tourists of the past. Examining the domestic travel results in the last few years, changes to the visitor profiles include:<\/p>\n