{"id":5048,"date":"2024-07-29T09:55:26","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T07:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/beta.forwardkeys.com\/introducing-the-air-capacity-forecast-accurate-forward-visibility-of-global-airline-seat-capacity\/"},"modified":"2024-12-05T10:11:49","modified_gmt":"2024-12-05T09:11:49","slug":"air-capacity-forecast-global-airline-seat-capacity-insights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/air-capacity-forecast-global-airline-seat-capacity-insights\/","title":{"rendered":"Air Capacity Forecast: Global Airline Seat Capacity Insights\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

In our ongoing commitment to providing the most accurate and comprehensive air travel insights on the market, ForwardKeys is delighted to introduce a groundbreaking innovation that revolutionises airline capacity forecasting \u2014 something no one else is currently doing.<\/p>\n

Our Data Science team has developed the only solution on the market that produces detailed capacity forecasts extending up to 12 months into the future, broken down by route and flight level. It has been designed to swiftly respond to the multifaceted changes in actual airline performance versus scheduling, reflecting the dynamic responses of carriers to evolving factors.<\/p>\n

\"The main challenge for travel-dependent industries in relying on scheduled air capacity lies in its volatility. When airlines publish schedules a year in advance, they cannot be certain of the fleet and seat capacity they will use versus the operational reality or demand on that route. The difference between scheduled air capacity (published by the airlines) and actual flown air capacity can vary by up to eight times for specific dates and routes. Factors such as slot allocations, airport limitations, leasing strategies, bilateral agreements on traffic rights, and force majeure events affect the actual pict<\/strong><\/em>ure.\"<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/div>\n
Daria Kalenskaya<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
Head of Product & Innovation<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
In response to these challenges, we have designed an innovative solution comprising three fundamental algorithms: <\/span><\/div>\n
    \n
  • \n
      \n
    • A sophisticated machine learning model that predicts the likelihood of a\u00a0<\/span>scheduled flight being de-scheduled or cancelled<\/strong>.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • A complementary machine learning model that forecasts total seats for a given route and flight<\/strong> up to a year in advance.<\/span><\/li>\n
    • An algorithm that intelligently combines the outputs of the machine learning models<\/strong> to generate the final, comprehensive Air Capacity Forecast<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      The scale of the necessary modelling is significant, with over 110,000 machine learning micro-models being retrained each week<\/strong> \u2014 allowing accurate forecasting at the individual flight level.<\/strong> Our continuously improving model treats every route independently and applies hyper-parametrisation to optimise accuracy. <\/span><\/p>\n

      This enables our forecasts to adapt to sudden changes in the aviation landscape, such as changes in flight frequency, operational fleet constraints, commercial adjustments to seat volumes, or even force majeure events like civil unrest, conflicts, or natural disasters. The pioneering predictions from ForwardKeys automatically adjust based on multiple inputs, ensuring that our clients always have access to the most up-to-date and accurate capacity forecasts.<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n

      While the legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic presented significant challenges to machine learning models, with 2023 forecasts based on 2020 training data initially proving too low, our team quickly adapted and overcame these anomalies.<\/p>\n

      We measure the accuracy of our forecasts using the Average Percentage Error (APE), comparing our predictions to actual air seats flown data \u2014 and now achieve over 98.7% accuracy on some of the routes<\/strong>, with improvements week on week.<\/p>\n

      \u201cLooking ahead, we are committed to further refining the accuracy of our capacity forecasting algorithms and exploring opportunities to integrate them with other cutting-edge machine learning models. Our ultimate goal is to provide a truly comprehensive, end-to-end forecast of global airline capacity that empow<\/strong><\/em>ers our clients to make informed, data-driven decisions.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

      \n
      \"\"<\/span><\/div>\n
      Fernando Alcina<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n
      Data Science Lead<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      In our ongoing commitment to providing the most accurate and comprehensive air travel insights on the market, ForwardKeys is delighted to introduce a groundbreaking innovation that revolutionises airline capacity forecasting…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5049,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[622],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-innovation-updates"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5048"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5048\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5209,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5048\/revisions\/5209"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forwardkeys.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}