The world’s leading travel analytics firm, ForwardKeys, has developed new forecasts to chart the course of air travel recovery in the short and long term.
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted regular trends in the air travel market, making it impossible to establish forecasts based on past performance. In response, ForwardKeys has developed a new state-of-the-art forecasting model that, instead of using historical data, draws on a range of metrics to generate forward-looking estimates for the total air market.
As a built-in feature of the company’s travel retail solution, Traveller Statistics, ForwardKeys’ forecasts provide an outlook for the future of air travel. The aim is to facilitate strategic decision-making at a time when travel retailers and brands are finding it difficult to plan.
“Continual lockdowns and travel restrictions have caused unprecedented disruption to the global air travel market, and historical data that was previously so dependable now offers very little as a means of predicting future trends,” says Marina Giuliano, Director of Travel Retail & Brands, ForwardKeys.
Forecasts are available in both short- and long-term form. Short-term forecasts look up to six months ahead and are part of the Traveller Statistics ‘Advanced Analytics’ module. Based on real travel demand and airline capacity, they help users to foresee where the travel market is due to recover first. In-depth insight is provided on daily and hourly passenger traffic, and filters enable analysis by origin and destination airport, airline, nationality, cabin class and flight type.
Long-term forecasts, found in the dedicated ‘Forecasting’ module, paint a picture of market recovery up to 10 years in advance. The purpose-built algorithm takes into account a combination of historical trends; aviation drivers such as unserved demand for air routes; emerging market opportunities; available airport capacity; and aircraft orders and delivery schedules. It also considers GDP growth, since there is generally a strong correlation between GDP and outbound travel. The forecast can be filtered by departure and destination airport as well as by nationality.
“While our forecasts have been developed to chart the recovery of the travel market from the current global crisis, their benefit will long outlive the pandemic. As travel picks up and trends begin to take shape again, the algorithm will become more accurate. Traveller Statistics forecasts will be informing key business decisions for many years to come – in good times and in bad,” concludes Giuliano.