Global air travel demand has shown remarkable resilience in 2024, with passenger volumes continuing to grow compared to the previous year. This growth has been largely driven by the stabilisation of the global economy in the wake of the pandemic, as well as the much-anticipated return of outbound travel from China and other key Asia Pacific markets. According to the latest Air Ticket Data from ForwardKeys, international arrivals worldwide have surged by an impressive 18% year-to-date (YTD) as of mid-July, when compared to the same period in 2023.

Africa set for resilient growth in arrivals through 2024

While the Asia Pacific region has seen the most dramatic increase, with YTD arrivals soaring by +40% due to a slower recovery in 2023, Africa and the Middle East (MEA) have also experienced a solid +7% growth in international arrivals so far this year. This is particularly noteworthy given that Africa’s air travel market was already performing exceptionally well in 2023, with passenger volumes nearing pre-pandemic levels. The more moderate year-on-year growth observed in the region, especially during the peak northern-hemisphere summer period from July to August (+3%), is a testament to the market’s ability to sustain high levels of demand.

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The continued growth in Africa’s air travel sector can be attributed to concerted global efforts to stabilise the economy. Strategic monetary policies and improvements in supply chain management have played a crucial role in restoring consumer confidence, which has, in turn, led to increased spending on international travel. As economic conditions continue to improve and consumer sentiment remains buoyant, Africa’s air travel market is poised for steady growth in the coming months and years.

Sub-Saharan Africa emerges as a key driver of regional growth

Sub-Saharan Africa has emerged as a standout performer, driving much of the regional growth in air travel. International arrivals in this sub-region are set to increase by +5% in July and August compared to the same period in 2023, outpacing the overall +3% growth projected for the broader Africa and Middle East region. This growth is being led by a diverse array of destinations, each offering unique attractions that are proving irresistible to international travellers.

Madagascar, for instance, is expected to see a remarkable +19% increase in international arrivals, while Mauritius is close behind with a projected +14% growth. Ghana (+10%) and regional powerhouse South Africa (+5%) are also performing well. The strong performance of these destinations underscores the rising appeal of Sub-Saharan Africa’s diverse tourism offerings, from pristine beaches and lush rainforests to vibrant cities and rich cultural heritage.

South Africa, in particular, has cemented its position as the most sought-after destination within Sub-Saharan Africa. The country accounts for an impressive 18% of all flight searches made so far this year, far surpassing the 10% share held by second-placed Tanzania and the 8% share of third-placed Kenya. South Africa’s enduring popularity can be attributed to its diverse range of world-class attractions, including iconic safari experiences, breathtaking scenic beauty, fascinating cultural heritage, dynamic cities, and renowned wine regions.

Sustained demand prompts capacity increases to Sub-Saharan Africa

Recognising the demand for travel to Sub-Saharan Africa, airlines have responded by significantly boosting seat capacity. In the first half of 2024, the number of seats on flights arriving in the sub-region increased by +10% compared to the same period in 2023. This growth is set to continue, with a further +7% increase in capacity planned for the peak months of July and August, underscoring the confidence airlines have in the ongoing strength of demand.

Available seats flying to South Africa from regional markets have increased significantly compared with 2023 volumes, with +19% growth in the first half of the year. This growth is driven by the continued development of South Africa’s Airlink independent regional carrier, with growth of +26% YoY. Since gaining independence from South African Airways in 2020, Airlink has dramatically expanded its operations. The end of their 23-year franchise agreement allowed Airlink to grow its fleet and establish a network of over 30 routes across Southern Africa, solidifying its position as a leading regional airline.

Top performing destinations in Sub-Saharan Africa

Among the top-performing destinations in Sub-Saharan Africa (that represent more than 2.5% of market share), Mauritius leads the field with an expected +14% growth in arrivals during the peak months of July and August compared to the previous year. The island nation’s stunning beaches, luxurious resorts, and warm hospitality continue to make it a favourite among international travellers seeking a tropical getaway.

Senegal’s capital city, Dakar, follows closely with a projected +12% increase in arrivals, showcasing the growing appeal of West Africa’s vibrant culture and history. Ghana’s capital, Accra, is also expected to perform strongly, with a +9% growth in arrivals, while Tanzania’s Kilimanjaro region is set to welcome +7% more visitors, drawn by the allure of Africa’s highest mountain and the region’s incredible wildlife.

South Africa’s prominence in driving continental air travel growth is further underscored by the strong performance of its major cities. Cape Town, with its stunning natural beauty, world-class dining and entertainment, and rich cultural heritage, is expected to see a +6% increase in arrivals. Johannesburg, the country’s economic hub and gateway to many of its most iconic attractions, is also set to grow by a solid +3%.

Other notable destinations contributing to Sub-Saharan Africa’s robust tourism landscape include Kenya’s capital, Nairobi (+5%), and the idyllic island of Zanzibar (+3%), famed for its pristine beaches, spice markets, and fascinating history.

Olivier Ponti, Director of Intelligence and Marketing at ForwardKeys, commented: “As global travel demand continues to thrive in the post-pandemic era, Sub-Saharan Africa is well-positioned to capitalise on its diverse and appealing tourism offerings. The region’s unique attractions, coupled with the growing recognition of its potential as a premier travel destination, are set to drive continued growth in its tourism industry. By leveraging global air travel intelligence to guide strategic investments in infrastructure, marketing, and sustainable tourism development, destinations within the region can look forward to a bright future.”

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2024-07-30T08:29:07+02:0030/07/2024|All, DMO|
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